Windows 8 & WOA – Where is Microsoft in 18 months

I was asked this question by my boss at work yesterday:

Which Headline do you predict 18 months from now:

1. “ Enterprises turn their back on consumerization as they gladly embrace Microsoft’s re-emergence as the dominant personal computer/device software supplier in the world. Last quarter numbers reveal a major turnaround for Microsoft as Apple and Google stocks plummet”

OR

2. “ Last ditch effort fails Microsoft. Microsoft, the once enterprise giant, took a huge step backwards as the latest numbers reveal that Corporate Enterprises are outwardly rejecting Microsoft’s bid to unseat Google and Apple in the enterprise. Steve Ballmer has resigned under pressure from Microsoft’s board as rumors fly that only their premier gaming system XBOX 720 will now be their primary focus. “

Given that the question came from my boss, I would have like to given a definitive answer. I simply couldn’t.

I honestly think it will be somewhere in between. I do not think Windows 8 will be a complete failure, nor do I see it being a huge enough success to cause consumers to switch over from their iOS/Mac OS devices. There is a level of devotion to Apple that Microsoft simply will not crack. Apple would have to force their hands by creating an inferior product. That won’t happen.

That being said, with Microsoft’s OEM partnerships I do not see number 2 happening in 18 months. Windows 8 can be a complete failure, think Vista, and Enterprises will still stick with Microsoft and Windows 7 on desktops. The tools IT currently has in place are designed to manage Windows.

I also do not see the tide of consumerization ebbing any time soon, rather getting stronger in the next 18 months. We will see further Apple integration into the Enterprise with less reliance on Microsoft on devices. I can also see Microsoft licensing Office on iOS (reportedly being worked on now) and improving upon their Mac OS offering.

36 months from now, number two seems more likely then number one. BUT, Apple owes Microsoft one. Without the MS/Apple deal when Apple were on the verge of bankruptcy, we may never have been introduced to the iPod, let alone the iPhone and iPad.